Bitcoin mining in Ethiopia: a risk or an opportunity? (Part 3)

Photo: Bole International Airport in Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia

(5) How much electricity is currently being used to mine Bitcoin in Ethiopia?

According to local interviews, there are about 30 bitcoin mining companies in Ethiopia, and it is estimated that they have brought about $55 million in electricity sales revenue in 2023 in Ethiopia. Assuming that the cost of electricity is 2 cents per kWh, the electricity consumption in 2023 can be calculated as follows:

$$5\; ,\; 500万ドル÷\; (\; 0.02ドル/kWh\; \times \; 8\; ,\; 760時間)\; \approx \; 313\; MW\; 5,500万\backslash text\{ドル\}\; \backslash div\; (0.02\backslash text\{ドル/kWh\}\; \backslash times\; 8,760\backslash text\{時間\})\; \backslash approx\; 313\backslash text\{MW\}$$ $$5\; ,\; 500万ドル÷\; (\; 0.02ドル/kWh\; \times \; 8\; ,\; 760時間)\; \approx \; 313\; MW\; 5,500万\backslash text\{ドル\}\; \backslash div\; (0.02\backslash text\{ドル/kWh\}\; \backslash times\; 8,760\backslash text\{時間\})\; \backslash approx\; 313\backslash text\{MW\}$$ $$5\; ,\; 500万ドル÷\; (\; 0.02ドル/kWh\; \times \; 8\; ,\; 760時間)\; \approx \; 313\; MW\; 5,500万\backslash text\{ドル\}\; \backslash div\; (0.02\backslash text\{ドル/kWh\}\; \backslash times\; 8,760\backslash text\{時間\})\; \backslash approx\; 313\backslash text\{MW\}$$ $$5\; ,\; 500万ドル÷\; (\; 0.02ドル/kWh\; \times \; 8\; ,\; 760時間)\; \approx \; 313\; MW\; 5,500万\backslash text\{ドル\}\; \backslash div\; (0.02\backslash text\{ドル/kWh\}\; \backslash times\; 8,760\backslash text\{時間\})\; \backslash approx\; 313\backslash text\{MW\}$$ $$5\; ,\; 500万ドル÷\; (\; 0.02ドル/kWh\; \times \; 8\; ,\; 760時間)\; \approx \; 313\; MW\; 5,500万\backslash text\{ドル\}\; \backslash div\; (0.02\backslash text\{ドル/kWh\}\; \backslash times\; 8,760\backslash text\{時間\})\; \backslash approx\; 313\backslash text\{MW\}$$ $$5\; ,\; 500万ドル÷\; (\; 0.02ドル/kWh\; \times \; 8\; ,\; 760時間)\; \approx \; 313\; MW\; 5,500万\backslash text\{ドル\}\; \backslash div\; (0.02\backslash text\{ドル/kWh\}\; \backslash times\; 8,760\backslash text\{時間\})\; \backslash approx\; 313\backslash text\{MW\}$$ $$5\; ,\; 500万ドル÷\; (\; 0.02ドル/kWh\; \times \; 8\; ,\; 760時間)\; \approx \; 313\; MW\; 5,500万\backslash text\{ドル\}\; \backslash div\; (0.02\backslash text\{ドル/kWh\}\; \backslash times\; 8,760\backslash text\{時間\})\; \backslash approx\; 313\backslash text\{MW\}$$ $$5\; ,\; 500万ドル÷\; (\; 0.02ドル/kWh\; \times \; 8\; ,\; 760時間)\; \approx \; 313\; MW\; 5,500万\backslash text\{ドル\}\; \backslash div\; (0.02\backslash text\{ドル/kWh\}\; \backslash times\; 8,760\backslash text\{時間\})\; \backslash approx\; 313\backslash text\{MW\}$$ $$5\; ,\; 500万ドル÷\; (\; 0.02ドル/kWh\; \times \; 8\; ,\; 760時間)\; \approx \; 313\; MW\; 5,500万\backslash text\{ドル\}\; \backslash div\; (0.02\backslash text\{ドル/kWh\}\; \backslash times\; 8,760\backslash text\{時間\})\; \backslash approx\; 313\backslash text\{MW\}$$ $$5\; ,\; 500万ドル÷\; (\; 0.02ドル/kWh\; \times \; 8\; ,\; 760時間)\; \approx \; 313\; MW\; 5,500万\backslash text\{ドル\}\; \backslash div\; (0.02\backslash text\{ドル/kWh\}\; \backslash times\; 8,760\backslash text\{時間\})\; \backslash approx\; 313\backslash text\{MW\}$$ $$5\; ,\; 500万ドル÷\; (\; 0.02ドル/kWh\; \times \; 8\; ,\; 760時間)\; \approx \; 313\; MW\; 5,500万\backslash text\{ドル\}\; \backslash div\; (0.02\backslash text\{ドル/kWh\}\; \backslash times\; 8,760\backslash text\{時間\})\; \backslash approx\; 313\backslash text\{MW\}$$ $$5\; ,\; 500万ドル÷\; (\; 0.02ドル/kWh\; \times \; 8\; ,\; 760時間)\; \approx \; 313\; MW\; 5,500万\backslash text\{ドル\}\; \backslash div\; (0.02\backslash text\{ドル/kWh\}\; \backslash times\; 8,760\backslash text\{時間\})\; \backslash approx\; 313\backslash text\{MW\}$$ $$5\; ,\; 500万ドル÷\; (\; 0.02ドル/kWh\; \times \; 8\; ,\; 760時間)\; \approx \; 313\; MW\; 5,500万\backslash text\{ドル\}\; \backslash div\; (0.02\backslash text\{ドル/kWh\}\; \backslash times\; 8,760\backslash text\{時間\})\; \backslash approx\; 313\backslash text\{MW\}$$ $$5\; ,\; 500万ドル÷\; (\; 0.02ドル/kWh\; \times \; 8\; ,\; 760時間)\; \approx \; 313\; MW\; 5,500万\backslash text\{ドル\}\; \backslash div\; (0.02\backslash text\{ドル/kWh\}\; \backslash times\; 8,760\backslash text\{時間\})\; \backslash approx\; 313\backslash text\{MW\}$$ $$5\; ,\; 500万ドル÷\; (\; 0.02ドル/kWh\; \times \; 8\; ,\; 760時間)\; \approx \; 313\; MW\; 5,500万\backslash text\{ドル\}\; \backslash div\; (0.02\backslash text\{ドル/kWh\}\; \backslash times\; 8,760\backslash text\{時間\})\; \backslash approx\; 313\backslash text\{MW\}$$ $$5\; ,\; 500万ドル÷\; (\; 0.02ドル/kWh\; \times \; 8\; ,\; 760時間)\; \approx \; 313\; MW\; 5,500万\backslash text\{ドル\}\; \backslash div\; (0.02\backslash text\{ドル/kWh\}\; \backslash times\; 8,760\backslash text\{時間\})\; \backslash approx\; 313\backslash text\{MW\}$$ $$5\; ,\; 500万ドル÷\; (\; 0.02ドル/kWh\; \times \; 8\; ,\; 760時間)\; \approx \; 313\; MW\; 5,500万\backslash text\{ドル\}\; \backslash div\; (0.02\backslash text\{ドル/kWh\}\; \backslash times\; 8,760\backslash text\{時間\})\; \backslash approx\; 313\backslash text\{MW\}$$ $$5\; ,\; 500万ドル÷\; (\; 0.02ドル/kWh\; \times \; 8\; ,\; 760時間)\; \approx \; 313\; MW\; 5,500万\backslash text\{ドル\}\; \backslash div\; (0.02\backslash text\{ドル/kWh\}\; \backslash times\; 8,760\backslash text\{時間\})\; \backslash approx\; 313\backslash text\{MW\}$$$55 million ÷ ( 2 cents /kWh × 8 , 760hours ) ≈ 313MW ​

Furthermore, let us estimate in a different way.

There are currently about 10 mining sites in operation (based on on-site interviews). The first facility we visited consumed about 40MW of power, and the second consumed 15MW. Assuming that the maximum power consumption per site is about 50MW, the total is estimated to be about 500MW.

If the electricity used for bitcoin mining in Ethiopia last year was 313MW, and it is estimated to be 500MW now, then it will have increased by 200MW in one year. If it continues to increase by 200MW every year from now on, it is possible that the electricity consumption will eventually reach about 1.3GW by 2028, when the contracts with the power companies that many mining sites have power purchase agreements with expire.

As I wrote in my previous article (Part 2) , the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) has a generating capacity of 6GW, so I believe there is still room even if Ethiopia's demand for electricity for general purposes other than Bitcoin mining doubles.

The electricity consumption of Bitcoin mining sites is increasing rapidly, so the rate of increase in the future needs to be closely monitored.

(Continued)