Photo: People sitting in front of a church in the middle of the night (Addis Ababa, the capital of Ethiopia)
(2) Ethiopia’s power supply: Significant increase thanks to mega dams
We, Bitcoin miners, are always looking for "surplus electricity." We estimate the power supply capacity and power consumption to determine how long this surplus will last.
Ethiopia's power supply has increased dramatically with the start of operation of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). The GERD's maximum generating capacity is said to be 6GW (gigawatts, 1,000 times 1 megawatt).
The maximum power output of the GERD is as large as the Grand Coulee Dam, the largest reservoir dam in the United States, with a maximum output of 7GW. This highlights just how massive the GERD truly is.
Grand Coulee Dam, the largest reservoir hydropower plant in the United States (Maximum output 7GW)
It is said that Ethiopia's power supply capacity will reach 10GW upon completion.
Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) boasts the second largest generating capacity in Africa
(3) Ethiopia’s electricity consumption – population growth and increase in per capita electricity consumption
Currently, Ethiopia's population is about 130 million. According to data, the annual electricity consumption per person is about 70kWh to 150kWh. If we use the midpoint value of 100kWh, the total annual electricity consumption in the country is estimated as follows:
100\text{kWh} \times 130\text{million people} = 13\text{TWh}
Dividing this by the number of hours in a year (8,760 hours) gives the estimated average electricity demand (average electricity consumption):
13\text{TWh} \div 8,760\text{hours} \approx 1.5\text{GW}
From this calculation, it is estimated that the average annual electricity demand for Ethiopia as a whole is approximately 1.5GW.
Annual per capita electricity consumption varies significantly across the world. In developed countries, the United States leads with approximately 13,000 kWh per person, followed by Japan at about 7,800 kWh. Major European countries such as France and Germany consume roughly 7,000 kWh and 6,500 kWh per person annually, respectively. In stark contrast, the average per capita electricity consumption for the entire African continent is just 516 kWh. Within Africa, Ethiopia's annual per capita electricity consumption is particularly low, at only about 150 kWh. To put this into perspective, 150 kWh is equivalent to using four light bulbs (about 40 W each) for three hours a day. This highlights the significant disparity in electricity access and usage between developed and developing regions.
With the completion of the GERD, the government aims to increase electricity coverage to 100% of the population, up from the current figure of only about half.
Considering this, although there is a surplus of electricity due to the completion of the GERD, the Ethiopian people are still in a stage where they need electricity, so consumption is expected to increase sharply in the future.
(4) More Dam Construction – Koysha Hydroelectric Power Plant
In addition to the GERD, the Koysha hydroelectric power plant is currently under construction by an Italian company, which will add another 2GW of generating capacity when completed. The government is aiming to increase power supply to 17GW by 2030.
According to a survey by a US government agency, Ethiopia's hydroelectric potential is 45GW, so if there is sufficient funding, it seems possible to increase supply capacity. Incidentally, the GERD, which boasts a generating capacity of 6GW, was built with domestic funding, without relying on funding from other countries.
Koysha hydroelectric power plant under construction
